来源: 中国网财经 | 2020-04-28 15:59:41 |
上周沪深300下跌1.11%,上证综指下跌1.06%,深证成指下跌0.99%,创业板指下跌0.84%;分行业来看,电子、非银金融和纺织服装板块跌幅居前。其中,电子板块(-3.8%)跌幅第一,主因市场预期苹果门店一季度暂停营业对供应链企业业绩的影响将在二季度体现。
上周全球股市风险偏好被原油价格大跌所主导。5月WTI原油期货合约暴跌至-37美元,反映的是原油供给过剩和库存空间不足的问题。中欧基金认为,当前美股的风险溢价已经明显回落,压力测试可能再次开启,需要关注三个方面的风险:油价暴跌造成的页岩油企业债务风险、停工停产造成的家庭消费贷房贷违约和企业现金流断裂以及需求和就业恢复的进度不及预期。
中欧基金认为,就A股市场来看,国内在流动性、政策空间和防控疫情控制方面做得更好,A股风险溢价较高,市场情绪偏中性,预计短期仍将维持震荡格局。从结构上看,一方面由于科技公司多是订单驱动,在新冠疫情的影响下业绩滞后于订单,预计二季度增速将有所回落,另一方面不少白马蓝筹股当前估值已经回到中长期合理区间,具有较高风险收益比。投资者可以关注基建板块、白酒板块和必选消费板块。
债市方面,疫情完全扭转了市场的交易逻辑,在流动性宽松、资产荒和经济下行的大背景下,利率下行趋势难以短期扭转。策略上,长久期利率债暂时不建议追涨,信用债建议下沉资质,低等级信用债仍有进一步缩窄空间。
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